Disclaimer
The analyses and considerations in this article are based on data and trends drawn from academic and statistical sources, particularly inspired by the study “Long-Term Trends in Shooting Performance in the NBA: An Analysis of Two- and Three-Point Shooting across 40 Consecutive Seasons,” published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (2023).
I have reworked the collected data and integrated it with data from the 2024-2025 season to provide an even broader and more concrete interpretation.
The goal of this in-depth analysis is to provide a critical and contextualized reading of the numbers, without claiming to be exhaustive or absolutely true. Basketball, like any complex system, evolves continuously, and interpretations of data must be read in light of this dynamism.
This study aims to describe the trend of two-point and three-point shots and explore their influence on NBA game results over 40 consecutive seasons. To this end, the following game statistics were considered: total points per game (PPG), games played (GP), field goals made (FGM), field goals attempted (FGA), field goal percentage (FG%), two-point shots made (2PM), two-point shots attempted (2PA), two-point percentage (2P%), three-point shots made (3PM), three-point shots attempted (3PA), three-point percentage (3P%), and the ratio between three-point and two-point shots (3P/2P).
The number of three-point shots attempted (3PA) has increased significantly over time, while two-point shots attempted (2PA) have decreased. A significant increase in three-point percentage (3P%) was also observed, while two-point percentage (2P%) remained relatively stable during the period analyzed.
Statistical Sources: https://www.basketball-reference.com/
What You’ll Find in This Article
- Introduction
- First Quarter: Analysis of two-point and three-point shots attempted and made
- Second Quarter: Analysis of field goals (FGM) from two and three points attempted and made
- Third Quarter: Analysis of two-point and three-point shooting percentages
- Fourth Quarter: Relationship between field goal percentage and points per game
- Conclusions
- Links, sources
Introduction
In my previous article, “The Art of Efficient Shooting,” I analyzed what makes a shot truly efficient: balance, selection, decision-making, and the ability to maximize the value of every possession. But to fully understand how we arrived at that idea of efficiency, we need to look back. Way back.
Professional basketball has changed radically over the last forty years. It’s not just a matter of talent or physicality: it’s a cultural, strategic, and above all numerical transformation. I analyzed data from the NBA championship from 1980 to 2025, clearly showing how much the very concept of a “good shot” has been rewritten.
In the 1980s, the mid-range was the norm and the three-point shot was a risk. Today, it’s the exact opposite: the geometry of the court has opened up, efficiency has displaced instinct, and data has changed the way the game is understood.
This article stems from here — from the need to connect the evolution of shooting to the history of the numbers that have transformed modern basketball. A common thread that starts from the court, passes through statistics, and reaches the culture of the game itself.
Since its creation, the NBA has undergone constant evolution in game regulations, becoming one of the most popular sports disciplines in the world. One of the most significant changes in the league’s recent history concerns the introduction of the three-point line.
Beyond individual player contributions, the cumulative effect of team-level shooting efficiency can have a decisive impact on winning games. Shooting effectiveness is indeed recognized as one of the main performance variables influencing NBA game outcomes. Teams with an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) higher than their opponents win approximately 81% of regular season games, and their efficiency in victories rises to 90% in the playoffs. Expanding knowledge about two-point and three-point shooting trends in relation to collective effectiveness indicators would therefore allow for a better understanding of how these variables, combined, influence overall game performance.
From a practical standpoint, the change in shooting patterns observed reflects an intentional adaptation by coaches and players, aimed at maximizing opportunities for three-point shots and layups (i.e., shots near the basket) at the expense of mid-range shots. In other words, to optimize game strategy and increase the probability of winning, the coaching staff must critically manage the right proportion between two-point and three-point shots, based on roster characteristics and strategy for the next game.
With the introduction of advanced statistical analysis, coaching staffs can now monitor game dynamics in real-time, thus improving decision quality and increasing the probability of winning. Game indicators therefore become valuable tools for promoting specific shooting trends, both individually and collectively.
There is still little research on the evolution of two-point and three-point shooting trends in relation to NBA game results. In light of this, the main objective of this study was to identify and describe three-point and two-point shooting trends and their impact on game results in the NBA over four consecutive decades.
It’s important to emphasize that the choice of this time frame was made to include the period following the introduction of the three-point line in 1979. The differences in attempts and effectiveness of three-point shots compared to two-point shots over the last 40 NBA seasons were analyzed and ordered, seeking to understand how these trends have changed and how they influence game results. I then added data regarding the last 2024-2025 sports season.
The main hypothesis is that the number of three-point shots attempted is constantly increasing and that their effectiveness has an increasingly significant impact on game outcomes.
First Quarter: Analysis of Field Goals Attempted
Over the last 40 NBA seasons, from 1979 to 2019, the number of three-point shots attempted (3PA) increased significantly in each decade, going from 3.45 to 23.05 shots per game. Reaching the present day where in the 2024-2025 season an average of 37.6 three-point shots per game were attempted.
Conversely, the number of two-point shots attempted (2PA) decreased significantly, going from 85.42 in the ’80s to 60.78 in the modern NBA, reaching 51.6 in the 2024-2025 season.
Figure 1 presents the descriptive data of the variables analyzed.
Figure 2. Alternative graphical representation of the trend of three-point and two-point field goal attempts in the last 40 NBA seasons.
Similar trends were also observed for three-point shots made (3PM) and two-point shots made (2PM).
Second Quarter: Analysis of Field Goals Made
If we consider field goals made (FGM – Field goals made) instead, we see the following results.
With two-point baskets decreasing significantly and three-point baskets growing exponentially, almost matching two-point baskets made.
Figure 3 Trend of three-point and two-point field goals made in the last 40 NBA seasons.
Figure 4 Trend of three-point and two-point field goals made in the last 40 NBA seasons
Third Quarter: Field Goal Attempt Percentages
Starting from the 1992/1993 season, the three-point shooting percentage has never fallen below 33.3% (Table 1). The average 3P%, analyzed through fixed-base indices between the second and fourth decades, varied between 34.2% and 35.6%, despite the significant increase in three-point shot attempts each year (from 11.42 to 23.05 three-point shots per game in the decade ending with the 2018/2019 season) (Figure 1).
On the other hand, the two-point percentage (2P%), according to fixed-base indices, remained relatively stable between the second and fourth decades (from 48.2% to 49.4%), despite a sharp decline in the number of attempts (going from 71.7 to 60.8 two-point shots per game) (Figure 1).
In summary, the probability of success of a three-point shot remained higher than that of a two-point shot in each of the NBA decades analyzed.
Figure 5 Three-point and two-point field goal percentages in four consecutive NBA decades.
Figure 6 Three-point and two-point field goal percentages in four consecutive NBA decades.
Fourth Quarter: Relationship Between Field Goal Percentage and Points Per Possession
The analysis based on fixed-base indices showed that, in the early years of introducing the three-point shot, the overall effectiveness of field goals in the first decade reached 48.5% (FG%), with an average of 109.3 points per game (PPG).
In subsequent decades, the analysis with fixed-base indices showed a decrease in both the overall effectiveness of field goals (2nd decade — 46.3%, 3rd decade — 44.9%) and the average number of points scored (2nd decade — 101.0 PPG, 3rd decade — 96.9 PPG).
Only in recent years has this indicator shown a reversal: effectiveness improved to 45.5%, while the average points per game increased by almost five points, reaching 102.3 PPG in the fourth decade (Figure 4)..
Figure 7 Overall field goal percentages compared with total points scored per game in four consecutive NBA decades
Conclusion
The game of professional basketball has changed radically in the four decades analyzed. New trends emerge most clearly in the NBA, the world’s reference league, which recruits talented athletes with great skill every year to the 30 teams competing at the highest level.
The objective of this study was to analyze the evolution of three-point shots compared to two-point shots and understand how changes in regulations and game structure have influenced game results since the 1979/80 season. The data considered includes both shots attempted and shooting effectiveness, along with the average number of possessions and points scored per game, as indicators of offensive performance.
The results clearly show that, in the last 40 NBA seasons (1979–2019), the number of three-point shots attempted (3PA) increased significantly, while two-point shots (2PA) — particularly mid-range shots — decreased drastically. The average number of 3PA went from 2.8 in 1979 to 32.0 in 2018/2019.
This growth is linked to the fact that today most teams play much more behind the three-point line than in the past, thanks to improved long-distance shooting capabilities, not only from guards but also from big men.
The evolution of training methods has led to the development of more complete players: in the past, technical skills were more rigidly tied to position (point guard, guard, wing, power forward, center), while today more agile, fast, and athletic athletes can cover multiple positions. Long-distance shooting skills also have direct effects on the game: they open spaces for big men under the basket, facilitate drives by perimeter players, and force defenses to come out to the perimeter, risking easy baskets or delayed defensive transitions.
From a mathematical standpoint, shots under the basket have an average effectiveness of 65%, equal to 1.30 points per shot. However, two-point shots taken between 2 and 5 meters from the basket drop to 38% (about 0.76 points per shot). This means that, in terms of performance, three-point shots and mid-range shots are almost equivalent, but the three-point shot offers greater scoring potential.
For this reason, shot selection in the NBA today favors layups and open threes, while the mid-range shot has become the least effective and least desired solution.
Statistical analysis has shown that the two-point percentage (2P%) remained stable over time (49.3% → 48.2% → 47.2% → 49.4%), while the three-point percentage (3P%) grew steadily (27.8% → 34.2% → 35.6% → 35.6%), also reducing its variability. These trends, both significant, indicate that coaches and players consider shot selection a crucial factor for success, increasing three-point attempts thanks to their greater effectiveness and impact on scoring.
Shooting effectiveness is now the most determining element in the success of a professional team. This transformation is closely connected to the birth of so-called “position-less basketball” — a tactical revolution that has eliminated traditional roles.
This change has also influenced the general trend of shooting effectiveness and points scored: after a decline in the 2nd and 3rd decades (FG% from 46.3% to 44.9% and PPG from 101.0 to 96.9), recent years have seen improvement (FG% 45.5% and PPG 102.3).
In parallel, the average number of possessions per game also increased (from 101.6 in the 1st decade to 94.5 in the 4th, after a central decline), confirming a faster pace of play, more transitions, and greater offensive efficiency. The increase in points scored per game is a direct result of more possessions, more shots attempted, and better three-point effectiveness.
Study Limitations
Despite the results obtained, this analysis focuses mainly on the offensive component of the game. Further examination of the real impact of the three-point shot on game success, its future prospects, and how teams can adapt their defensive strategies to contain its spread would be necessary.
Additionally, further research should also include playoff games, where defensive strategies take on an even more decisive role.
Practical Applications
The trends observed represent a crucial point for the future of professional basketball. The growing importance of analytics, advanced data, and play-by-play allows coaches and general managers to deeply analyze team strengths and weaknesses, identifying strategic adjustments that can increase the probability of winning. Understanding how to optimize the distribution between two-point and three-point shots could influence shooting trends in the coming years.
Sources:
https://www.basketball-reference.com
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0223524
https://stefanobossi.com/shooting-efficency/
Next Episode…
Analytics in DEFENSE.
